I am very interested in the LHC at CERN. Not only in the fundamentals of physics unveiled by the experiment, but in the amazing efforts in logistics, project management and engineering that make the world’s largest machine (Borrowed from Sean Caroll and Lisa Randall) work. Probably I have studied physics to contribute to such experiments someday.
But we have something even more awe-inspiring today. As an technical aside, we are (I am) not the logistics managers in the experiment, but we are: the particles, the guinea pigs, the subjects, the probands. We are participating in The Game – a much better game than than the one Michael Douglas has been part of in the movie: It is not an experiment set-up for a single person only, but it concerns at least the whole European Union, if not the whole world. Yet it is as kafkaesque as you had imagined in your weirdest and most paranoid dreams.
Readers who have managed to resist the urge to close this browser tab window and who have born with me will have noticed that this is not your typical Easter posting. It is not my typical geeky weird posting either though I might need to utilize some very dark humour. This posting is:
- totally biased. You might be shocked about my very first forays into politics and economy.
- not based on any sort of expertise. I am the guinea pig musing about the experiment.
Of course I am talking about the situation of what we call the Eurozone and our political leaders’ ongoing attempts to rescue our financial system and regain its stability.
Yesterday the Swedish member of the European Parliament, Gunnar Hökmark, has suggested a change in EU legislation, that would allow for seizing money from deposits above € 100.000 in the future. The likelihood is rising that tough treatment of big depositors will be written into a new EU law, making losses for large savers a permanent feature of future banking crises. (Source: Reuters: The European Parliament will demand that big savers take losses if their banks run into trouble…).
Savers in Cyprus with deposits above € 100.000 might lose about 40% of their savings, and this might happen in other countries in the futures.
Now game theory is at play when savers consider their options: Will you queue in front of the bank, take your money and run? Or will you stay calm and watch all those fools. The latter is the more reasonable way to do – in terms of the overall stability of the system, but nonetheless you are ***** if all other customers of your bank would withdraw money from their accounts before you.
[As for ***** – I am still an avid follower of rules and laws and I want to avoid the need of having to tag my blog as mature or whatever]
I have had a chance to experience this from the guinea pig’s perspective when one of Austria’s largest bank nearly collapsed as a consequence of their own private speculation-based crisis in 2006. The funny thing about this was that this bank was owned the Austrian Trade Union Association and I had once selected it – the conservative bank for cautious savers and workers – over all those banks who had just embarked on their risky ventures in Eastern Europe. An elderly coupled had been robbed after they had withdrawn € 400.000 from their deposits by a villain who had followed them from the bank to their home. The bank was rescued finally, and politicians opened saving accounts at this bank in front of TV cameras.
This may not let my moral capabilities appear in the best light but I frankly admit this was probably the first time in my life I was really, personally, existentially concerned with what I heard in the news everyday.
So of course I am thrilled about the chance to go through this again and feel the tsunami of instabilities starting to roll over Europe. Actually right now I should do some research on cybersecurity and hacking smart meters, destabilizing the power grid. I have just devoured a compelling and well-researched German novel that lays out an apocalyptic, cyberpunk blackout scenario. However, I feel we manage to destabilize ‘the system’ without the helping hands of hackers, and based on IT that works as designed.
My compassion goes to the people of Cyprus, the hard-working savers in particular.
In the last years we had an ongoing discussion in Austria about introducing taxes on properties and assets (which we do not have today, in contrast to most other countries). From discussions about those I have learned the a majority(*) of people believes that you cannot own more than several € 100.000 unless you: are a criminal, have dealt with drugs, have inherited a fortune from your wealthy possibly aristocratic family whose wealth is based on crimes committed in the Thirty Years War, or you have benefited from risky financial deals based on all those derivative products I do not quite understand without a PhD in quantitative finance.
(*) It is a majority of online posters, but chances are it is the majority of the population. It is more than tempting to form an opinion about a minority of so-called wealthy people if you are part of the majority. Some bright lights of politicians here even wanted to make those taxes imposed on a minority subject to a referendum.
I cannot wait to read similar arguments again about all those fraudsters and banksters whom the crisis and laws like this serve right because they caused the crisis and should swallow their own poison now.
This. Makes. Me. Sick.
I have told you that this is neither going to be funny nor balanced, but it is probably time to add a disclaimer: I do not at all object against laws and political measures that would put myself at a disadvantage. I am in favor of a flat tax that would replace the intricate system of taxes, deductions, benefits, subsidies, charges, and so-called social insurance contributions which are a capped social tax in a sense anyway. It would probably leave me with less money but it would make the whole system simpler and cheaper – and this is an argument I can relate to a lot as a sensible citizen and taxpayer.
But I cannot relate to the argument of charging in particular so-called big depositors.
€ 100.000 is not a fortune – do the math: Imagine yourself being young – probably single, working in the right industry sector at the right time. Working your head off actually as you believe you would stop working like crazy in a few years and return to normal. Or take all the money and built solar power plants in Africa. Or fund an indie movie about a Star Trek like civilization that has abandoned money. No, I am not talking about starting a Zuckerberg-esque startup, sell it to an investor and retire. I am talking about working as a highly qualified expert in a sought-after field and being paid based on time and material. I guess, there are qualified lawyers, medical doctors, architects and IT specialists in Cyprus who own more than € 100.000 based on hard and good-to-honest work. Put yourself into their shoes and ask yourself if you would feel treated fair.
It is punishing people who do not follow the mantra of consumerism and let their monthly expenditure rise in proportion to their income. I have never understood why one needs to have a bigger car, bigger flat TVs (and a higher number thereof), vacations to exotic destinations if you earn more money, the latest communicator shaped cell phone including the holographic doctor feature. You might deposit your money to your favorite bank where you considered it safe. You might have selected some conservative, dull way of saving money – not some high risk speculation. You basically wanted to be compensated for increasing rate of inflation. But now the Cypriot architect might regret he did not buy a bigger house or swimming pool instead, or sign-up for the first parabolic flight for civilian space tourists.
But my – biased, uncalled for – theory is that there is a more subtle pseudo-ethical argument lingering in the minds of lawgivers and their consultants:
Money does not buy you happiness and many scientific studies do prove that you do not get happier if your monthly income raises beyond, say, several thousand euros. Due to whatever reason the argument seems to be reverted and twisted sometimes along the lines of: Too much money makes you a corrupt victim of your wealth, a modern age Ebenezer Scrooge watching the stock market tickers on his computer all the time – and donating a lower percentage of money than his poorer fellows do. I have indeed come across studies that seem to prove the latter (BTW as this is a post full of venting anyway, I do not give you any URLs this time not to break the subjectiveness. And BTW – off topic: I really like the movie Scrooged featuring Bill Murray).
On the other hand, every time some really wealthy person – such as Bill Gates or one of the few Austrian self-made billionaires, such as the founder of Red Bull, Dietrich Mateschitz – engages in charity or donates tons of money for whatever good cause there is an endless stream of mainly critical commentaries about: Why did they fund X and not the even better cause Y. Why did not spend even more. They better should donate as their wealth is built on illegal or at least immoral actions. This is just a big PR campaign for their company anyway.
So my pet theory is: Rich people cannot get it right anyway – no matter what they do or don’t do with their money.
Just to add a single sciencey link: Consider the stir the Milner prize had caused – a self-made billionaire funding a prize on fundamental research, a person donating his private money on disciplines that might lack funding in times of economic crises and budget cuts. Critics have complained about why money was given to established researchers, and why the selection is done by a non-scientists and his clandestine unknown advisors. And on and on.
The killer argument in an economic assessment is the utilitarian one (Philosophers among my readers – I hope I do not mess this up.): Politics should make sure that happiness or some moderate level economic wealth for that matter should be secured for a majority. This means that a minority, even an innocent one, not being accountable for the financial mess, would have to make sacrifices to save ‘the system’.
I have always agreed to this and I rather want a technocrat to be minister of finance or minister of social affairs – somebody who is able to calculate stuff and think in terms of the economical system as a complex network governed by some differential equations. It is sufficiently complex already to foresee that kinds of effect a new law may have. As a politician you simple cannot factor in every single heartbreaking story. My favorite example is the health system: Somebody needs to make a pragmatic and so to speak cold-hearted assessment of the value of a human being’s life. Otherwise you would not be able to decide on question as: Should a 105 year old patient be put on the list of people eligible for a heart transplant?
Having said that we would need to evaluate the impact of seizing large depositors money versus keeping private assets sacred. I am at a loss here: Trying to give an answer to this would require me to have access to the models experts in economy use to analyze the consequences of what they are doing. At least I hope they are using quantitative models. I have just a gut feeling that politicians deciding on this might not know exactly what they are doing – and it is tempting to go for something that will hit a probably not too popular minority. If the system is about to crash, it might crash with or without those deposits being touched. We all might lose money anyway (with the notable exception of people being in debt and not bound to a fixed rate of interest).
As a deposit owner in the middle of the crisis I might feel a little better if I know that anybody is affected in the most equal way. My conclusion is that measures like this do not help at all to foster social cohesion. And though it makes the game theory experiment less exciting it would really help if politicians would not speculate about such things in public.
I am not a big fan of online petitions as it feels like appeasing conscience with a click. But I would sign one that is called:
Stop the Eurozone Game Theory Experiment.
Let the system crash for heaven’s sake but stop probing what might happen if you tell millions of people their money might not safe be at the banks.
or as alternative:
This Cannot Be Real. Please Release Us From the Matrix. Red Pill for Everyone.
As I am not sure of this is reality or matrix we could also vote for:
Please Let Me Go Back to the Matrix. Blue Pill for Everyone.
Matrix-like corridor: Where’s The Keymaker when you need him?